SMXSpace Markets Index

SMI methodology

Version 1.1 (30 Sep 2026). Version 1.0 launch rules: launch methodology. Machine-readable: methodology.json.

Headline

  • SMI Launch Cadence = 100 × counted launches in the trailing 13 ISO weeks ending the print ÷ the same ISO weeks one year earlier (base = 100). Weekly.
  • It is the measure of row 1 (launch and access). There is no composite: the rows are not combined into one weighted score, and row 6 never feeds the headline.
  • Every row of a print uses one GCAT data update. Print 2026-W39.r7: GCAT data to 28 Sep 2026. Earlier prints stay at prints/index.json.

1 · Launch and access

  • A launch is a GCAT launch.tsv row whose LaunchCode starts with O (Earth orbit) or D (deep space), and only if the vehicle lifted off. Failures after liftoff count. Suborbital flights and tests do not.
  • Explosion before liftoff is not a launch (rule adopted 30 Sep 2026): rows with LaunchCode second letter E are left out, so New Glenn 2026-E01 (pad explosion, 29 May 2026) is not counted. Effect: 232 launches in 2026 on the 24 Sep data (was 233); 235 on the 28 Sep data (236 if it were counted). The headline is the same either way (the event is outside the 13-week window).
  • Reached orbit: second letter S. Orbit rate = (reached Earth orbit + deep space) ÷ launches. Country: GCAT orgs.tsv state of the first launch agency. Cadence: headline counts ÷ 13, one decimal.
  • Mass: per payload, military class D left out, GCAT estimates never summed. Cost per kg: only a provider's own published list price, labelled List price, per kg only where the provider states the price and the mass it buys (never the expendable maximum). Delays: not shown.
  • Cadence of updates: weekly print after each GCAT data update; the provisional count refreshes daily and is never used in figures.

2 · Compute and energy in orbit

  • Stages: announced, launched, working. Each project is counted once at its furthest stage; ended and unverified projects are listed but not counted.
  • Working (compute): the operator's own past-tense statement that the on-board computer ran, executed, trained or processed a workload in orbit. Working (energy): the operator's own past-tense statement that power was beamed or transferred in or from orbit.
  • Capacity: only where the operator's own channel states it for that project, otherwise none. Chips are summed per model only.
  • Sources: the operator's own channels or a regulator filing, captured, with two confirmers for a stage move; links, not copies; quotes of one sentence or less. Without that, an entry shows evidence unclear and is not counted.
  • Weekly, plus within 2 business days of a known event.

3 · Connectivity and data (early)

  • GCAT payloads (Type starting P) with Status O in satcat.tsv + satcat100k.tsv + auxcat.tsv. In orbit, not a count of operating satellites.
  • A "name contains" test looks at the GCAT Name, PLName and AltNames fields.
  • Mapping: Starlink = owner SPXS and name contains Starlink; OneWeb = owner ONEWEB, ONEWEBN or ONEWEBE; Amazon Leo = owner KUIP; Qianfan = owner YUANX and name contains Qianfan; Guowang = owner ZXW and name contains Xingwang.
  • Earth observation fleets (Planet, Jilin-1, ICEYE, BlackSky, Capella, Umbra) are early and shown as "at least N".
  • Catalogued through: the latest launch date among the catalogued payloads (GCAT lags launches). Operator figures go beside the GCAT count, never into it.
  • Ground stations: public operator or government lists only (AWS Ground Station excluded); no count yet. Downlink: no public figure.

4 · Spectrum and filings (early)

  • Tracked: FCC 47 CFR 25.164(b) milestones and ITU Resolution 35 milestones, with dates stated in a primary document or rule. Nothing forecast.
  • Sources: FCC EDOCS, ICFS and ECFS; the free parts of the ITU Space Network List. Press only as context.
  • An item is verified only once the FCC order (or filing, or ITU record) itself is captured; otherwise it is shown as unverified. FCC dates are cited to the captured orders (DA 26-36, DA 26-553) with their SHA-256.
  • ITU material appears only as our own one-line paraphrase with a citation (ITU Radio Regulations No. 11.44/11.44C; Resolution 35 (WRC-19); Circular Letter CR/475) and links. No ITU documents, SNL tables, SRS or BR IFIC data are reproduced. The Resolution 35 1 Feb 2028 row is a rule date for a category of filings; no system is named under it.
  • Status wording is neutral (Open, Waived with conditions). We never judge whether a licensee will meet a milestone. No in-orbit figure is shown beside SpaceX Gen2 (GCAT does not split Gen1 and Gen2).
  • Information only; no score. No SMX market references these milestones. Early. Weekly review.

5 · Deep space and the Moon

  • Deep-space launch: GCAT LaunchCode starting D, one per launch. Moon landings: GCAT landercat, Status L (landed) or I (impact).
  • Missions sit at one stage: announced, launched, arrived, landed, returned (plus ended). Crewed steps and stages GCAT does not hold come from a registry with a source per entry.
  • Next dates only when the agency or operator states them; otherwise "No update yet". The Moon Race row is information only and links to no market.
  • Agencies (including CMSA) and, for commercial landers, operator channels are accepted as sources under the same rules. Weekly, plus within 2 business days of an event.

Conflicts

Conflicts. Space Markets also operates SMX, a testnet venue. Some SMX testnet markets concern events that SMI also tracks, such as orbital compute and power-beaming demonstrations. Some companies named on this page may be current or prospective business contacts of Space Markets. SMI applies the same published rules to every company, and no SMX market is resolved using SMI figures. See the methodology for how SMI is kept separate from SMX markets.

Change log

  • 30 Sep 2026, version 1.1: Operators' own channels and CMSA accepted as primary sources (strict tense rules, two confirmers, capture, link don't copy, quotes of one sentence or less). Pre-liftoff explosions are not counted as launches (LaunchCode second letter E). List prices: only a provider's own published list price, labelled List price, quoted as published; per kg only where price and mass are both stated. Launch-delay archive: dates archived daily from Launch Library 2 for internal use; no delay values are published. Spectrum and filings rules: FCC 25.164(b) and ITU Resolution 35 milestones from captured primary documents; ITU as paraphrase with citation and links; neutral status wording; no score. Connectivity definitions: GCAT in-orbit payloads (satcat, satcat100k, auxcat), name rule on Name, PLName and AltNames; operator figures beside, never summed. Sub-index 6 (market view) off.

Data

  • latest.json keeps every existing key and adds smi_version, sub_index_order and sub_indices. Stable ids: smi... Every value in datapoints.json has a source_url and an as_of time. Changes: changes.json.